Reba: 0 Umwanditsi: Muhinduzi wurubuga Gutangaza Igihe: 2022-07-08 Inkomoko: Urubuga
Mu rwego rwo kutabogama kwa karubone na karubone bigera ku ntego nyamukuru, hamwe n’imiterere myiza y’ikomeza kugabanuka ry’amafaranga akoreshwa muri sisitemu, ubushobozi bw’imiterere y’ingufu z’umuyaga hamwe n’amafoto y’amashanyarazi byagaragaje ko iterambere ryiyongera mu myaka itanu ishize. Nk’uko imibare ya TrendForce ibigaragaza, ubushobozi bwo gushyiraho uburyo bwo kongera umutungo wongerewe imbaraga ku isi mu 2021 ni hafi GW 3064 (gigawatts), hamwe n’ikigereranyo cy’ubwiyongere bwa buri mwaka kingana na 8-10%, n’ingufu z’umuyaga ndetse n’amafoto yerekana 88% by'ahantu hakoreshwa cyane.
TrendForce yavuze ko bitewe no kongera imbaraga mu gushyiraho ingufu z’umuyaga kimwe n’amafoto y’amashanyarazi, ibyo bikaba byongera mu buryo butaziguye ndetse n’imihindagurikire y’amashanyarazi, umwanya wo kubika ingufu wabaye uburyo bwo gukemura ikibazo cyo kugabanya umuyaga kimwe n’umucyo (ingufu z’umuyaga zidakoreshwa na fotokoltike) ndetse no kogosha hejuru no kwogosha inshuro nyinshi (kogosha hejuru). Yerekeza ku guhindura imbaraga, guhagarika ingufu z'amashanyarazi ndetse no gufata amashanyarazi; umurongo ngenderwaho usobanura guhindura ubuziranenge bwingufu, ingufu zamashanyarazi zihoraho) bisaba inzira nziza. Muburyo bwose bwo kubika ingufu, ububiko bwa batiri ya lithium yububiko bwa kijyambere ikoranabuhanga rya kijyambere rihagarariwe na lithium fer fosifate ifite inyungu nyinshi kurenza ubundi buryo bushya bwo kubika ingufu. Kugeza ubu birangiye aribwo bushyizwe hagati yubushobozi bushya bwo kubika ingufu kwisi yose. Mu 2021, isoko yo kubika ingufu ku isi nta gushidikanya izarinda iterambere ryiterambere. Ubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho rwose buzaba 29.6 GWh, umwaka-ku mwaka kuzamuka kwa 72.4%. Bigereranijwe ko isoko mpuzamahanga yo kubika ingufu mu kirere izatangiza iterambere ryihuse mu myaka 5 kugeza ku icumi iri imbere. Ingano ifitanye isano na 362GWh.
Ugendeye ku giciro cyiterambere cy’isoko ry’ububiko bw’amashanyarazi mu bihugu bitandukanye, Ubushinwa bugiye kurenga Uburayi na Amerika. Umuvuduko witerambere wingenzi ukomoka kuruhande rwibisekuru. TrendForce yizera ko ububiko bushya bw’Ubushinwa buzimukira mu iterambere ryagutse kandi rishingiye ku isoko. Umwanya wo kubika amashanyarazi muri rusange ushingiye kumurongo wo kubyara amashanyarazi, utwarwa na gahunda yifuzwa, hamwe no kugabura umwanya wabitswe, hamwe na gride (Transmission & Circulation), hamwe nuruhande rwingufu (Umukoresha wa nyuma; harimo urugo ndetse nubucuruzi ndetse no gukoresha ubucuruzi), byuzuzwa nuburyo bwo kubika ingufu. Biteganijwe ko mu 2025, Ubushinwa bubika isoko ry’ingufu nta gushidikanya ko buzarenga 100GWh.
Muri Reta zunzubumwe za Amerika, kubera ububobere bugezweho mubushobozi bushya bwashyizweho bwo kubika hydro pompe, ubwiyongere bw'ejo hazaza buzibanda kububiko bw'amashanyarazi. Biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bwa vuba muri Amerika buzagera kuri 136GWh mu 2025. Mu Burayi, kubera iterambere rya politiki ndetse n’ubukungu bw’ubucuruzi, hakenewe gushyirwaho ingufu zo kubika ingufu. Kubera amakimbirane y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, itangwa rya gaze karemano n’andi masoko atandukanye y’amashanyarazi mu Burayi ryabaye rito, kandi n’igiciro cy’amashanyarazi cyazamutse, bituma isoko rihagarika umutima. Ubu Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi washyizeho intego nshya yo gushyiraho ingufu mu 2030., izamura ubukene bw’ububiko bw’ingufu, kandi biteganijwe ko ubushobozi bushya buzashyirwaho nta gushidikanya ko buzagera kuri 54GWh mu 2025.
Muri rusange, uburyo bwo guhatanira amasoko yo kubika amashanyarazi ku isi hose bupimwe hakurikijwe urwego rwo kwibanda kuri bateri zibika ingufu, guhinduranya ingufu (PCS), ndetse no guhuza sisitemu (Sisitemu Assimilation). Mu bihe byashize, isoko mpuzamahanga ya batiri yo kubika ingufu za batiri yiganjemo ahanini abakinnyi ba koreya nka LG na Samsung SDI. Hamwe nogusohora kwinshi kwabashitsi batwara ingufu zububiko bwabashinwa BYD na CATL, hagaragaye inyungu zikoreshwa muri sisitemu yo kubika ingufu z'amashanyarazi, kandi umugabane w’isoko ku bakinnyi b’abashinwa wagutse.
Mudasobwa nyinshi zibika ingufu ni fotora ya inverter ikora. Biteganijwe kandi ko PCS izakomeza rwose nu munywanyi wifoto ya Photovoltaque cyangwa PV inverters mugihe kizaza. Abanywanyi mubigo biyobora bazamuka rwose, kandi urwego rwo kwibandaho rwose ruzongerwaho; Sisitemu yo kwishyira hamwe rwose izatanga uburyo bwo guhatana ugereranije, cyane cyane ntoya kandi ninganda ziciriritse, kandi na bimwe mubigo byambere byambere byambere bifite gahunda kubwibi.
Murata, kimwe na TDK, bafite isoko rya 80% ku isoko ryimodoka MLCC. Hamwe no kongera ubushobozi bwo gukora ibinyabiziga, nabo bashishikajwe no gutura muri serivisi za porogaramu za MLCC. Binyuze mubikorwa byabakiriya bafatanije, bongereyeho ibikoresho byo gukemura ibisubizo. Kuzamura abakiriya. Kugeza ubu, abatanga isoko bombi batangiye gutanga serivisi nkibice byerekana ifoto yerekana (Moderi yerekana sensor) kimwe na IPA (Intelligent auto parking parking) muri powertrain yimodoka (Powertrain) na ADAS yateye imbere sisitemu yo gufasha abashoferi.
Samsung kandi yatsinze ibyemezo by’imodoka n’abakora amakamyo muri uyu mwaka kandi izagenda izamura buhoro buhoro ubushobozi bwo gukora uruganda rukora Tianjin kuva mu gihembwe cya 3; Yageo iherereye mu ruganda rukora Dafa muri Kaohsiung. Biteganijwe ko hubahirizwa ibicuruzwa binini nka 0805 na 1210 biteganijwe ko bizakorwa cyane mu mpera z’igihembwe cya mbere cy’umwaka wa 2023, hamwe n’ubushobozi bwo gutangiza umusaruro buri kwezi bwo kureba ibice miliyari 8-10.
TrendForce yizera ko nubwo urwego rw’ibicuruzwa mu Bushinwa bw’Uburasirazuba mu butaka bw’Ubushinwa mu by'ukuri rwasubiye mu bikorwa nyuma y’ibindi, mu mahanga, Shanghai mu mahanga ndetse n’ibyambu bitwara ibicuruzwa byo mu kirere birasubirana neza, kandi kohereza ibicuruzwa byuzuye mu nganda za ODM birihuta. Ibi na byo, byongereye ingufu zo gukurura ibicuruzwa mu gihembwe cya gatatu. Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, amakimbirane mpuzamahanga ya politiki, ibyorezo, n’ifaranga ryinshi ashobora gutera imbere mu bijyanye n’ifaranga rihagaze, n'ibindi, bizahinduka impinduka zikomeye zigira ingaruka ku isoko rya MLCC muri mirongo itanu na kabiri ku ijana ya 2022.
TrendForce yavuze ko kubera izamuka ry’ubushobozi bwashyizweho bw’ingufu z’umuyaga kimwe n’amafoto y’amashanyarazi, ibyo bikaba byongera mu buryo butaziguye n’imihindagurikire y’amashanyarazi, ububiko bw’amashanyarazi bwahindutse serivisi y’ikibazo cyo kugabanya umuyaga n’umucyo (ingufu z’umuyaga zidakoreshwa ndetse n’ifoto y’amashanyarazi) ndetse na politiki yo kogosha cyane (no kogosha hejuru). Muburyo bwose bwo kubika ingufu, kubika ingufu za batiri ya lithium ikoranabuhanga rigezweho, ihagarariwe na lithium fer fosifate, ifite ibyiza byinshi kurenza ubundi buryo butandukanye bwo kubika ingufu mu kirere kandi kuri ubu birangira aribwo bushobozi nyamukuru bwashyizwemo ububiko bushya bw’amashanyarazi ku isi. TrendForce itekereza ko ububiko bushya bw’amashanyarazi mu Bushinwa buzimukira mu cyerekezo cy’isoko kimwe n’inini, bigashyiraho uburyo bwo kubika ingufu z’amashanyarazi muri rusange bushingiye ku ruhande rw’amashanyarazi, butwarwa na gahunda nziza, hamwe n’ahantu hateganijwe kubikwa, kimwe n’uruhande rwa gride (Transmission & Circulation) kimwe n’uruhande rwamashanyarazi (Umukiriya wa nyuma; rugizwe n’inzu n’ububiko n’inganda zikoreshwa). Muri rusange, icyitegererezo cyabanywanyi mumasoko yisi yose yo kubika ingufu zashyizwe kumurongo ukurikije urwego rwibandwaho nka bateri yo kubika ingufu, ububiko bwo kubika amashanyarazi (PCS), hamwe na sisitemu (Sisitemu yo guhuza). Hamwe no kohereza byihuse abakora bateri yo kubika ingufu z’abashinwa BYD na CATL, hagaragaye inyungu z’ibiciro bya sisitemu yo kubika ingufu, kandi umugabane w’isoko ry’abakinnyi b’abashinwa wakomeje kwiyongera.
