Kiteeberezebwa nti obusobozi obupya obuteekeddwawo obw’ekifo eky’okutereka amasannyalaze mu nsi yonna awatali kubuusabuusa bujja kutuuka ku 362GWh mu 2025

Wansi w’okuziyiza obutaba na kaboni n’okujja ku biruubirirwa bya kaboni, awamu n’ebirungi ebiva mu kukendeera okutambula mu nsaasaanya y’enkola, obusobozi bw’okuteekawo amaanyi g’empewo n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala mu nsi yonna bulaze omuze gw’okukula ogutaggwaawo mu myaka etaano egiyise. Okusinziira ku bibalo bya TrendForce, obusobozi bw’okuteekawo okukuŋŋaanyizibwa kw’eby’obugagga ebizzibwa obuggya mu nsi yonna mu 2021 buli nga 3,064 GW (gigawatts), nga bbeeyi eya bulijjo ey’okukula buli mwaka ya 8-10%, era amaanyi g’empewo era n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala gakiikirira ebitundu 88% ku bitundu ebisinga obukulu eby’okukozesa.

TrendForce yategeezezza nti olw’okutumbula obusobozi bw’okuteekawo amaanyi g’empewo nga kw’otadde n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala, ekyongera obutali butereevu era n’okukyukakyuka kw’okukola amasannyalaze, ekifo ekitereka amaanyi kifuuse eky’okulondako eri ekizibu ky’okukendeeza ku mpewo awamu n’ekitangaala (amasoboza g’empewo agatakozesebwa n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala) era n’okusenya ku ntikko n’okulambika kwa frequency (okusenya waggulu). Kitegeeza okukyusa amasannyalaze, okutebenkeza okukola amasannyalaze era n’okuyingiza amasannyalaze; frequency guideline enyonyola okukyusa omutindo gw’amaanyi ogw’ekika ekya waggulu, stable electrical energy regularity) demand an efficient way. Mu ngeri zonna ez’okutereka amaanyi, ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya lithium tekinologiya ow’omulembe akiikirirwa lithium iron phosphate alina enkizo nnyingi okusinga obuyiiya obulala obw’enjawulo obw’okutereka amaanyi. Mu kiseera kino ekoma ku busobozi obuteekeddwa wakati obw’ekifo ekipya ennyo eky’okutereka amasannyalaze mu nsi yonna. Mu mwaka gwa 2021, akatale k’ensi yonna ak’okutereka amaanyi awatali kubuusabuusa kajja kukuuma omuze gw’enkulaakulana ogw’amaanyi. Obusobozi obupya obuteekeddwawo mazima ddala bujja kuba bwa GWh 29.6, nga buli mwaka bugenda kulinnya ebitundu 72.4%. Kiteeberezebwa nti akatale k’ensi yonna ak’ebifo ebitereka amaanyi kagenda kuleeta enkulaakulana ey’amangu mu myaka 5 ku kkumi egijja. Omuwendo gulina akakwate ne 362GWh.

Nga tugenda ku bbeeyi y’enkulaakulana eriwo kati ey’akatale k’okutereka amasannyalaze mu mawanga ag’enjawulo, China enaatera okusinga Bulaaya ne Amerika. Puleesa y’enkulaakulana ey’amaanyi esibuka ku ludda lw’omulembe. TrendForce erowooza nti China gy’etereka amaanyi amapya ddala egenda kusenguka egende mu nkulaakulana ey’amaanyi era etunuulidde akatale. Enkola y’ebifo eby’okutereka amasannyalaze okutwalira awamu yeesigamiziddwa ku ludda lw’okukola amasannyalaze, nga evugirwa enteekateeka ezeetaagisa, nga waliwo okugabanya ebifo eby’okutereka amasannyalaze okukakatako, n’oludda lwa giridi (Transmission & Circulation), awamu n’oludda lw’amasannyalaze (End User; omuli n’enkozesa y’awaka era n’ey’obusuubuzi era n’eya bizinensi), byongerwako ensengeka y’okutereka amaanyi. Kiteeberezebwa nti omwaka 2025 we gunaatuukira, ekifo China ky’etereka mu The energy market awatali kubuusabuusa kijja kusukka 100GWh.

Mu Amerika, olw’obunkenke obuliwo kati mu busobozi obupya obuteekeddwawo obw’okutereka amazzi mu ppampu, okweyongera mu biseera eby’omu maaso kugenda kussa essira ku kifo we batereka amasannyalaze ag’amasannyalaze. Kiteeberezebwa nti obusobozi bwa USA obwakassibwako awatali kubuusabuusa bujja kutuuka ku 136GWh mu 2025. Mu Bulaaya, olw’okutumbula enkola nga kw’otadde n’ebyenfuna bya bizinensi, obwetaavu bw’okussaawo ebifo eby’okutereka amaanyi bweyongedde. Olw’obukuubagano wakati wa Russia ne Ukraine, ggaasi ow’obutonde n’ensonda z’amasannyalaze endala ez’enjawulo mu Bulaaya kubadde kwa maanyi, era n’ebbeeyi y’amasannyalaze erinnye ekivuddeko akatale okutya. EU kati etaddewo ekiruubirirwa ekipya eky’okuteekawo amasannyalaze mu mwaka gwa 2030., ekigenda okutumbula obwetaavu bw’ekifo we batereka amasannyalaze, era era kiteeberezebwa nti obusobozi obupya obuteekeddwawo awatali kubuusabuusa bujja kutuuka ku 54GWh mu 2025.

Battery ezitereka amaanyi n’ebikyusa ebifo ebitereka amaanyi bye bisinga obukulu, era olujegere lw’ebyobusuubuzi lussiddwako nnyo essira.

Okutwaliza awamu, enkola y’okuvuganya mu lujegere lw’akatale k’okutereka amaanyi mu nsi yonna epimibwa okusinziira ku ddaala ly’okussa essira ku bbaatule ezitereka amaanyi, ebikyusa okutereka amaanyi (PCS), awamu n’okugatta enkola (System Assimilation). Emabegako akatale ka bbaatule z’ensi yonna ezitereka amaanyi mu kifo kino kasinga kufugibwa bazannyi ba Korea nga LG ne Samsung SDI. Olw’okufulumizibwa kw’aba China abakola bbaatule ezitereka amaanyi BYD ne CATL, omugaso gw’ensaasaanya y’enkola z’ebifo ebitereka amaanyi gubadde gulagibwa, era omugabo gw’akatale k’abazannyi b’emizannyo Abachina gugaziye.

Kompyuta ezisinga ezitereka amaanyi zikola inverter za photovoltaic. Era kisuubirwa nti PCS mazima ddala ejja kugenda mu maaso n’enkola y’omuvuganya eya photovoltaic oba PV inverters mu biseera eby’omu maaso. Abavuganya wakati w’ebitongole ebikulembedde mazima ddala bajja kweyongera, era era n’eddaala ly’okussa essira mazima ddala lijja kwongera okunywezebwa; okugatta enkola mazima ddala kijja kuwa enkola y’okuvuganya ekutusekutuse ennyo, okusinga emirimu emitonotono ate era egya wakati, era era n’ebitongole ebimu ebikulembedde waggulu birina enteekateeka ku kino.

Ggyawo obuyinza bw’okulinnya n’okukka kw’akatale k’ebintu bya bakasitoma, wamu n’abafulumya okwongera ku nteekateeka yaabwe.

Murata, nga kwotadde ne TDK, balina akatale kumpi ebitundu 80% mu katale k’emmotoka MLCC. Ng’oggyeeko okwongera ku busobozi bw’okukola mmotoka, era bagenda mu maaso n’okusenga mu mpeereza z’okukozesa ebitundu bya MLCC. Okuyita mu nsengeka ya kasitoma ey’okukolagana, bongedde okulongoosa mu nkola y’okukozesa ebitundu. Okulinnyisa obunnyogovu bwa bakasitoma. Mu kiseera kino, abagaba ebintu bombi batandise okuwa obuweereza nga ekitundu kya Photo sensing unit (Photo sensor module) wamu n’ekitundu kya IPA (Intelligent auto parking component) mu powertrain y’emmotoka (Powertrain) ne ADAS progressed driver support system.

Samsung era eyise mu kukakasa abakola mmotoka ne loole omwaka guno era era egenda kwongera mpolampola obusobozi bw’okukola ekifo ekikola mmotoka ekya Tianjin okuva mu kwata y’okusatu; Yageo esangibwa mu kifo ekikola ebintu ekya Dafa e Kaohsiung. Okugoberera ebintu ebinene nga 0805 ne 1210 bisuubirwa okukolebwa mu bungi ku nkomerero ya kwata y’omwaka ogusooka ennyo ogwa 2023, nga buli mwezi bisookera ddala obusobozi okutunuulira ebitundu obuwumbi 8-10.

TrendForce erowooza nti wadde ng’ekitongole ky’okufulumya ebintu mu East China mu China ey’oku lukalu mu butuufu kikomyewo mu nkola emu oluvannyuma lw’omulala, emyalo gya Shanghai emitala w’amayanja wamu n’egy’ennyonyi giddamu okutereera mu bujjuvu, era okusindika ebintu ebiwedde okuva mu makolero ga ODM kweyongera okwanguwa. Kino nakyo kyayongera amaanyi g’okusika ebyamaguzi mu kwata y’okusatu. Wadde kiri kityo, enkaayana z’ebyobufuzi mu nsi yonna, ssennyiga omukambwe, n’ebbeeyi y’ebintu eyali waggulu biyinza okugenda mu maaso ne bifuuka okweraliikirira kw’ebbeeyi y’ebintu okutambula, n’ebirala, ebijja okufuuka enkyukakyuka enkulu ezikosa akatale ka MLCC mu bitundu ataano ku buli kikumi eby’okubiri mu mwaka gwa 2022.

TrendForce yategeeza nti olw’okulinnya kw’obusobozi obuteekeddwawo obw’amaanyi g’empewo nga kw’otadde n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala, ekyongera obutali butereevu n’okukyukakyuka kw’okukola amasannyalaze, mu butuufu okutereka amasannyalaze kufuuse mpeereza eri ekizibu ky’okukendeeza ku mpewo n’ekitangaala (amaanyi g’empewo agatakozesebwa ate era n’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala) era n’okusenya ku ntikko era n’enkola ya frequency (okusenya waggulu). Mu buli kika ky’okutereka amaanyi, okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya lithium tekinologiya ow’omulembe, eyayimirirawo ne lithium iron phosphate, alina enkizo nnyingi ku buyiiya obulala obw’enjawulo obw’ekifo awaterekerwa amaanyi era mu kiseera kino amaliriza nga ye busobozi obukulu obuteekeddwawo obw’ekifo ekipya eky’okutereka amasannyalaze mu nsi yonna. TrendForce erowooza nti China’s new power storage will relocate towards market-oriented as well as large, creating Enkola y’okutereka amasannyalaze okutwalira awamu yeesigamiziddwa ku ludda lw’okukola amasannyalaze, nga evugirwa enteekateeka ennungi, n’okugabanya ebifo eby’okutereka amasannyalaze okukakatako, awamu n’oludda lwa grid (Transmission & Circulation) awamu n’oludda lw’amasannyalaze (End Customer; nga lulimu ennyumba n’enkozesa y’ebyobusuubuzi n’amakolero) byongerwako ensengeka y’okutereka amasannyalaze. Okutwaliza awamu, enkola y’omuvuganya mu lujegere lw’akatale k’ekifo ekitereka amaanyi mu nsi yonna eteekebwa okusinziira ku ddaala ly’okussa essira nga bbaatule z’ekifo ekitereka amaanyi, ebikyusa amaanyi (PCS), n’okugatta enkola (System Combination). Olw’amangu okuteekebwa mu nkola kw’aba China abakola bbaatule ezitereka amaanyi BYD ne CATL, enkizo y’omuwendo gw’enkola z’okutereka amaanyi ebadde eraga, era omugabo gw’akatale k’abazannyi Abachina gweyongedde okugaziwa.