Omulimu gw’okutereka amasannyalaze agazzibwawo + amaanyi gugula ssente ezisinga okuvuganya n’okukola ggaasi ow’obutonde

Pulojekiti z’okutereka empewo n’okutereka amasannyalaze g’enjuba eziteekeddwa mu Ontario ne Alberta leero zivuganya ku ssente nnyingi ne ggaasi ow’obutonde okusinziira ku kunoonyereza okwakoleddwa ekitongole kya Clean Power Canada

Okunoonyereza kuno, omulimu gwa Simon Fraser University mu British Columbia, kwalagidde aba Dunsky Power + Climate Experts okukola ekitabo ekiyitibwa Survey of Renewable Resource Generation Facilities era ne kukifulumya olwaleero.

Ekyuma kya nukiriya ekikola amanda ekikola mu kibuga Alberta ekya Canada.

Okukola amasannyalaze mu mafuta g’ebintu ebikadde kya bulijjo okulowooza ku ky’okutondawo oba okwonoona ebizibu bya Canada ebibiri eby’okukyusa embeera y’obudde ate n’okukyukakyuka kw’ebbeeyi y’amasannyalaze, lipoota bwe yategeezezza. Alipoota eno yayongeddeko nti ebifo eby’amasannyalaze g’empewo awamu n’amasannyalaze g’enjuba ebifulumizibwa mu Ontario awamu ne Alberta bye bifuga enkola, era era bisobola okutondawo amasannyalaze ku ssente entono okusinga ebifo ebikola amasannyalaze ga ggaasi ow’obutonde.

Abakugu mu Dunsky Energy + Climate Experts beekenneenyezza ssente ezimu ezisaasaanyizibwa mu kuzimba empewo era n’okukola amasannyalaze g’enjuba mu Ontario ne Alberta, wamu n’ebbeeyi y’okuyimirizaawo ebika byombi eby’amasannyalaze n’okutereka bbaatule.

Kkampuni ya Clean Power Canada etegeezezza nti okunoonyereza kuno kukulu nnyo naddala okuva amasaza gombi okutuusa kati bwe geesigamye ku ggaasi ng’amafuta gaago amakulu okuziba ebituli mu bungi bw’amasannyalaze n’obwetaavu. Kino Ontario ekikola ng’ebifo eby’amasannyalaze ga nukiriya ebikula bigenda kuwummula, ate Alberta ekikola okukendeeza ku kwesigama ku kukola amasannyalaze agava mu koolaasi.

Nga wayiseewo okukendeeza ku nsaasaanya, ekkubo eritali lya kaboni omutono lyetaagibwa Canada okutuukiriza ebigendererwa byayo eby’obutonde bw’ensi, nga lirimu omukka ogufuluma mu mudumu ogutaliiko ziro mu mwaka gwa 2035, ate akatale k’amasannyalaze amayonjo kasigala nga kakulu nnyo okusinziira ku ndowooza y’okuvuganya mu by’obusuubuzi mu nsi yonna.

Olw’omuyaga gw’amasannyalaze mu makolero okuva ku bizimbe nga kw’otadde n’ebifo by’amakolero okutuuka ku ntambula, obwetaavu bw’amasannyalaze bweyongera, era n’okusalawo okukoleddwa leero ku kutegeka ensibuko y’amasannyalaze kujja kubaako kye kukola okumala emyaka egijja.

Okuyimirizaawo enkulaakulana egenda mu maaso eya tekinologiya ow’omulembe ow’okutereka amaanyi wamu n’engeri endala, ng’oggyeeko okusikiriza abakulaakulanya okussa ssente mu bifo eby’amasannyalaze g’enjuba n’empewo, kikulu okumalawo ebiziyiza okutumbula amasannyalaze agazzibwawo, likodi bwe yategeezezza.

Gavumenti ya Canada era n’ebitongole by’amasannyalaze byetaaga okwongera okugula okunoonyereza okusingawo ku bifo ebikola eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo, likodi bw’egamba, ng’etegeeza nti lipoota y’ekitongole ekivunaanyizibwa ku masannyalaze ekya Alberta Power Regulatory ekiriwo kati eky’enteekateeka ey’olubeerera yakozesezza okuteebereza kw’emiwendo okwa 2018 okutaliiko mugaso.

Dunsky Power + Climate Consultants yakozesa enkola ya levelized price of energy (LCOE) okwekenneenya omuwendo gw’ensimbi ezisaasaanyizibwa mu nkola y’obulamu bw’obuyiiya obw’enjawulo mu Ontario nga kwotadde ne Alberta.

Lipoota eno eraga enjawulo wakati w’ebbeeyi y’amasannyalaze (LCOE) ey’amasannyalaze g’enjuba n’empewo n’ekyuma ekigatta ggaasi (CCGT) wamu n’ensaasaanya y’amasannyalaze ey’enjawulo (LCOE) ey’amasannyalaze g’enjuba awamu n’empewo) byabalirirwa ne bigeraageranyizibwa, wamu n’ebbeeyi y’amasoboza etereezeddwa (LCOE) ey’enkola y’okutereka amaanyi ng’emala essaawa 4 n’essaawa 8 okwawukana ku kyuma ekikola ggaasi.

Okunoonyereza kuno kwazudde nti bwe balowoozebwako ku miwendo gya kaboni egiriwo, bbeeyi y’okuteeka amasannyalaze g’enjuba awamu n’empewo mu masaza gombi ntono nnyo okusinga eya ggaasi. Ne bwe kiba nga tewali miwendo gya kaboni. Mu Ontario, amaanyi g’empewo mu ngeri y’emu gakendeeza ku by’enfuna okusinga ebifo ebikozesa ggaasi ow’obutonde. Mu Alberta, bbeeyi y’ebifo ebiteekebwamu amasannyalaze g’enjuba efaananako n’ey’ebitundu bya ggaasi ebitaliiko miwendo gya kaboni, naye mazima ddala ejja kuba wansi okusinga ey’ebifo ebiteekebwamu ggaasi mu mwaka gwa 2023.

Nga bwe kirabibwa mu kifaananyi wansi, emirimu gy’ebifo ebizzibwawo+ebifo eby’okutereka gyavuganya dda mu nsaasaanya n’ebifo byonna ebikozesebwa ggaasi ow’obutonde. Mu disitulikiti zombi, ggaasi ow’obutonde ajja ku makolero ag’omutwe mu kiseera kino ga bbeeyi nnyo okukola okusinga ekifo eky’okutereka amasannyalaze g’enjuba oba ekifo eky’okuterekamu empewo+ku musingi gw’ensaasaanya y’amasannyalaze eya levelized expense of power (LCOE).

Mu kiseera kino, mu Alberta, buli kutabula kw’amasannyalaze agazzibwawo era n’ekifo eky’okuterekamu ebintu kibeera kya bbeeyi okusinga ggaasi ow’obutonde okuggyako eky’amasannyalaze g’enjuba ate era n’ekifo eky’okuterekamu essaawa 8, ekyalagulwa okuva Okutandika mu makkati ga 2024, kijja kuba kitono okusinga eky’ebifo ebikola amasannyalaze ga ggaasi ow’obutonde.

Embeera eno efaananako bwetyo mu Ontario, wadde ng’enkola z’enjuba awamu n’ez’ebifo eby’okutereka zikola ku bizibu ebirungi ku bikwata ku kwenkanankana kw’ebisale n’ebifo ebisanyukirwamu ebya ggaasi

Okusinziira ku alipoota y’okunoonyereza eyafulumizibwa ekibiina ekigatta ekitongole kya Canada ekikola ku by’okutereka amasannyalaze mu October mu 2015, mu mwaka gwa 2035, Canada yeetaaga okufulumya omuwendo gwonna ogwa 8GW okutuuka ku 13GW ez’okutereka amaanyi okusobola okutuukiriza ekigendererwa kyayo ekya yintaneeti. Okuva ku nkomerero ya mu 2015, obusobozi bw’okutereka amasannyalaze obutawera 1GW bwali bufulumiziddwa mu Canada.

Gavumenti ya Ontario mu butuufu ekoze ebikolwa eby’obulabe okuteekawo ekiruubirirwa ky’okutereka amaanyi agasukka mu 2.5 GW. Nga ekyo tekinnatuuka, Ontario’s Independent Electric System Driver (IESO) yawa amagezi nti okutereka amasannyalaze ku mutendera gwa grid kulina okukola omulimu omukulu mu kuyamba okukola ku bbula ly’amasannyalaze eryateeberezebwa ng’obwetaavu bweyongera. Wadde kiri kityo, ekiruubirirwa kino kiriwo mu kiseera kye kimu n’ekiruubirirwa ky’okugula ggaasi ekya GW 1.5.

Ku mutendera gw’eggwanga lyonna, gavumenti ya Canada eya wakati yategeezezza nti egenderera okuleeta enteekateeka ey’okusikiriza okukendeeza ku buvunaanyizibwa bw’omusolo ku tekinologiya w’amasannyalaze amayonjo, nga mulimu ebifo eby’amasannyalaze g’enjuba, enkola z’okutereka amasannyalaze ga bbaatule n’ebifo eby’amasannyalaze ga haidrojeni. Okukola ku tteeka erikendeeza ku bbeeyi y’ebintu.

Etteeka ly’okusala ku bbeeyi y’ebintu ligaziya empeera eziriwo erongooseddwa ez’obuvunaanyizibwa bw’omusolo gw’amasannyalaze era n’eyanjula endala, emu ku zo ezisinga okukwatagana ye Financial Investment Tax Credit Score (ITC) eri enkola z’ebifo eby’okuterekamu amasannyalaze eziyimiriddewo zokka, ezijja okusobozesa ebifo eby’okuterekamu amasannyalaze ebirina ebisaanyizo Ensimbi z’ensimbi eziteekebwa mu pulojekiti z’amasannyalaze zisobola okukendeezebwako ebitundu ebisukka mu 30%.