Okulinnya kw'olutalo lwa 'Olutalo wakati wa Russia ne Ukraine' mazima ddala kujja kulanga okutumbula amangu eby'obugagga ebizzibwawo mu Bulaaya

Nga March 9, omukago gwa Bulaaya gwayogera nti ekiruubirirwa ky’okuteekawo amasannyalaze g’enjuba aga GW 1,000 mu mwaka gwa 2030 kisobola okutuukirira nga kiyita mu kugenda mu maaso mu bwangu. Okusinziira ku 'European Photovoltaic Market Outlook 2021-2025' eyafulumizibwa SolarPowerEurope, obusobozi bwa EU obw'okuteekawo ekitangaala bujja kutuuka ku 672GW mu 2030, nga kino kyenkanawa n'obusobozi obw'okuteekawo buli mwaka obwa bulijjo obwa 56.3 GW mu myaka mwenda egiddako. Ekiruubirirwa kyayongezebwa okutuuka ku 1TW ku mulundi guno, ekitegeeza nti obusobozi obwa bulijjo obuteekebwawo buli mwaka mazima ddala bujja kutuuka ku 92.8 GW, nga busuubirwa okulinnya ebitundu 65%. Akatale k’amasannyalaze akapya ddala mazima ddala kagenda kwongera okugaziwa olw’obwetaavu obw’amaanyi obw’eby’obugagga ebizzibwa obuggya mu Bulaaya olw’okwesigamira ku masannyalaze aga bulijjo.

1. Ekizibu ky’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya kyeyongera okusajjuka

Okusinziira ku International Energy Firm (IEA), mu January 2022, Russia yatonda ebikwata ku bipipa by’amafuta obukadde 11.3 buli lunaku, 2nd only to the America and also Saudi Arabia. Ku bikwata ku bungi bw’amafuta agafulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga, mu December wa 2021, amafuta Russia ge yafulumya ebweru w’eggwanga yalina akakwate n’ebipipa obukadde 7.8 buli lunaku, wamu n’amafuta ate era ggaasi ow’obutonde ebweru w’eggwanga byakiikirira ebitundu nga 25% ku mulimu gw’okutunda ebweru w’eggwanga mu nsi yonna, so nga Bulaaya ye yali ekifo ekikulu Russia we yafulumya amasannyalaze ebweru w’eggwanga. Amafuta ne ggaasi Russia by’etunda e Bulaaya bikiikirira ebitundu 50% ate era ebitundu 78% ku Russia by’efulumya mu bujjuvu, naddala.

Russia ye nsi y’amaanyi ga Bulaaya, era amawanga ga Bulaaya galina emitendera egy’enjawulo egy’okwesigamira ku Russia. Bulgaria eyingiza kumpi ebitundu 100%, Poland eyingiza ku bikwata ku bitundu 80% ebya ggaasi, nga kwotadde ne Belgium, Bufalansa era ne Budaaki zikola ebitundu ebitakka wansi wa 10%. Mu November 2021, Bulaaya yayingiza ebidomola by’amafuta ebiwera obukadde buna n’ekitundu okuva mu Russia mu lunaku lumu, nga bino bikola ebitundu 34% ku by’amafuta byonna bye yayingiza. Mu mwaka gwa 2021, Russia ekola ggaasi egenda kutuuka ku kiwandiiko obuwumbi bwa cubic mita 762.8, omwaka ku mwaka okulinnya kwa 10%, 2nd just to the United States. Ku bikwata ku kimu kya kusatu (obuwumbi bwa square mita 245) kifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga, nga ku zino ebitundu 70 ku 80% ku ggaasi agenda e Bulaaya, egaba cubic mita obuwumbi 168 eza ggaasi e Bulaaya, nga zikola kimu kya kusatu ku bwetaavu bwonna obw’ekyokubiri.

Okusinziira ku ndowooza y’amaanyi agayingira mu Bulaaya, amafuta ne ggaasi bikola ebitundu 59% ku masannyalaze gonna agakozesebwa mu Bulaaya, ng’amafuta gakola ebitundu 33.8% ate era ggaasi ow’obutonde gakola ebitundu 25.2%. Ensibuko y’amasoboza ey’okusatu mu bunene ekola ebitundu 12.2%; eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo bikola ebitundu 11.5%, nga kino kye kitundu ekisinga obunene mu masannyalaze agazzibwawo agakozesebwa mu nsi yonna; amaanyi ga nukiriya ate era n’amasannyalaze g’amazzi gakiikirira ebitundu 9.6% nga kw’otadde ne 7.5%. Mu myaka egiyise, ssente eziteekebwa mu mafuta g’ebintu ebikadde mu Bulaaya mu butuufu zibadde zikendeera, ekireetedde amawanga agamu aga Bulaaya okuggala amabibiro g’amasannyalaze agakozesa amanda n’amabibiro agamu agakola amasannyalaze ga nukiriya. Mu kiseera kye kimu, promo y’amasannyalaze agazzibwawo esigadde yeeyongera, era n’ekizibu ky’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya mu butuufu kyeyongedde okubeera eky’amaanyi ku luguudo lw’enkyukakyuka mu masannyalaze. Mu nkomerero yabikkuddwa ku lutalo lwa Russia ne Ukraine.

2. Obwetaavu bw’ebintu ebizzibwa obuggya mu Bulaaya bweyongedde nnyo

Okusinziira ku TrendForce, ssente z’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya zaalinnya okutuukira ddala mu 2015 nga kw’otadde n’okweyongera mu kitundu ekyokubiri ekya 2021. We bwazibidde mu February 2022, omuwendo gw’amasannyalaze ogwa bulijjo mu mawanga ga Bulaaya amakulu gusukka Euro 300 buli MWh, bw’ogeraageranya n’ensimbi ezitakka wansi wa Euro 50 buli MWh mu kiseera kye kimu ennyo mu 2019. TrendForce erowooza nti amasannyalaze geetaagisa okugenda e Bulaaya olw’embeera y’obudde ey’omunda, awamu n’ebbeeyi y’amasannyalaze okweyongera kijja kuleetera obwetaavu obw’amaanyi obw’amasannyalaze agaliwo mu Bulaaya, bwe kityo ne kitumbula akatale k’amasannyalaze akapya akanene.

Ebigendererwa by’enteekateeka: Bulaaya bulijjo ebadde nnyiikivu nnyo mu nkola y’enkola empya ez’amasannyalaze, era mu butuufu amawanga ag’enjawulo gawadde amagezi ku biruubirirwa by’okutumbula eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo. Ng’oggyeeko okutandika kw’olutalo wakati wa Russia ne Ukraine, okukula kw’amasannyalaze agazzibwawo mu Bulaaya kusinga nnyo ku nteekateeka. Nga March 8, ekitongole kya Bulaaya ekivunaanyizibwa ku kuliyirira kyafulumya enteekateeka y’okwesigamira ku masannyalaze, nga kikola kyonna ekisoboka okumalawo okwesigama kwakyo ku masannyalaze Russia g’eyingiza mu ggwanga mu mwaka gwa 2030, nga kitandikira ku ggaasi ow’obutonde. Enteekateeka y'emirimu eyitibwa 'Ekikolwa eky'awamu ku masannyalaze ag'ebbeeyi, agataliiko bulabe era nga gasobola okuwangaala mu Bulaaya'. Nga March 9, ekitongole kya European Payment kyafulumya olupapula lw’amawulire olwa RePower EU, olugenderera okugonjoola ebizibu by’obukuumi bw’amasannyalaze n’ebisale Bulaaya by’ekolagana nabyo mu kiseera kino. Enkola eno eraga nti ekiruubirirwa kya 2030 eky’okussa GW 1,000 ez’ebitundutundu by’amasannyalaze g’enjuba kisobola okutuukirira nga tuyita mu nkulaakulana ey’okwongera.

Mu kiseera kye kimu, ekitongole ky’obutonde bw’ensi ekya Girimaani kyawa amagezi okukola ebbago eppya ery’amateeka okutumbula ekigendererwa ky’okukola eby’obugagga ebizzibwa obuggya ebitundu 100% okutuuka mu mwaka gwa 2035, nga bukyali emyaka 15 okusinga ku kiruubirirwa ekyasooka. Omukago gwa Bulaaya era guteekateeka okwanguya enteekateeka yaago ey’okukendeeza ku bucaafu obufuluma mu bbanga eya Fit for 55 eyatongozebwa nga July 14, 2021, omuli n’ekiteeso ky’okuleeta amasannyalaze g’enjuba agakola essaawa 15 ez’oku kasolya omwaka guno.

Bbeeyi y’okuyingira mu kukola amasannyalaze g’amasannyalaze egenda erinnya omwaka ku mwaka: okweyongera kw’ebisale by’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya mu 2021 kuva ku kweyongera kw’amafuta ate era n’ebisale bya ggaasi ow’obutonde ku ludda olumu; Nga tutwala okukola amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala ng’ekyokulabirako, nga kiva ku bintu ebirabika nga bya sizoni olw’ensonga z’okutaasa, amasannyalaze g’enjuba aga bulijjo agakolebwa buli mwezi okuva mu October okutuuka mu February ag’olukalala oluli wansi w’omwaka gali wansi wa bitundu 50% ku ago mu myezi emirala egy’enjawulo. Wadde ng’obusobozi obuteekeddwawo obw’amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala mu Bulaaya mazima ddala bujja kweyongera nnyo mu 2021, amaanyi g’enjuba agakendedde mu sizoni mu sizoni y’obutiti tegajja kuyamba nnyo mu kukendeeza ku bbula ly’amasannyalaze. Okukola amasannyalaze g’amazzi awamu n’okukola amasannyalaze g’empewo nabyo bikosebwa nnyo embeera y’obudde, era okukendeera kwago kuyinza okuvaamu okukendeera kwonna mu kukola amasannyalaze. Okusinziira ku TrendForce, olw’okukosebwa kwa sizoni ku ntandikwa ya 2022, ekitangaala ky’amasannyalaze agava mu kitangaala oba pv kikendeera, wamu n’eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo e Bulaaya si binene mu February, nga kw’otadde n’okusuubirwa okulinnya ennyo mu March.

Okusinziira ku mawulire okuva mu SolarPower Europe (SPE), obusobozi bwa PV obupya okuteekebwawo mu EU mu 2021 bugenda kuba nga 25.9 GW, omwaka ku mwaka okulinnya kwa 34% bw’ogeraageranya ne 19.3 GW mu 2020, okuteekawo ekiwandiiko ekipya ennyo ku EU gy’eteeka buli mwaka. N’okutuusa kati, obusobozi bwa photovoltaics obugenda mu maaso obuteekeddwa mu Bulaaya butuuse ku GW 164.9, nga buno bulimu GW 59.9 mu Girimaani ate era mu Italy 22GW.

Okukola amasannyalaze mu by’obugagga ebizzibwawo kulina kinene nnyo kye kukola ku nkola y’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya. Okusinziira ku nkola y’emiwendo gy’akatale k’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya, okukola amasannyalaze agazzibwawo kwe kusinga okukulembezebwa okusinga ku mudumu. Amasannyalaze agava mu by’obugagga ebizzibwawo bwe gatasobola kutuukiriza bwetaavu bwa masannyalaze, bbeeyi ey’oku mabbali ey’okukola amasannyalaze ejja kuba ya bbeeyi nnyo. amaanyi. Leero, okukola amasannyalaze agazzibwawo mu Bulaaya tekusobola kumatiza bwetaavu bwa katale obusinga obungi. Emiwendo gy’amafuta ate era ne ggaasi gigenda ku ddaala lya waggulu nga kivudde ku lutalo lwa Russia ne Ukraine. Kizibu ebbeeyi y’amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya okukka. Mu bbanga eggwanvu, Bulaaya bw’eba eyagala okuwagira akatale kaayo ak’amasannyalaze, ku ludda olumu, yeetaaga okwanguya enkyukakyuka y’amasannyalaze, okutumbula ebbeeyi y’okukozesa amasannyalaze agazzibwawo, era n’okulungamya enkola yaayo ey’amasannyalaze mu bwangu

Mu mwaka gwa 2022, obwetaavu bw’obusobozi obuteekeddwa mu PV mu mawanga ga Bulaaya bujja kusigala nga bwa maanyi, bujja kutuuka ku 37.3 GW. Okusinziira ku butale bungi obw’omu Bulaaya, Girimaani, Budaaki, Spain, ne Bufalansa zikyali mawanga ag’obwetaavu obw’amaanyi. Olw’okutumbula ennyo enteekateeka z’okukubiriza era n’enkola y’okutunda, obutale bwa Italy, Portugal, Greece era ne Bungereza bujja kufuuka amawanga agasinga okugaziwa amangu mu katale k’e Bulaaya mu 2022. Okusinziira ku TrendForce, okutwalira awamu obusobozi obuteekeddwa mu Bulaaya mazima ddala bujja kutuuka ku 37.3 GW mu 2022, okulinnya kwa 22% bw’ogeraageranya ne 2021, era era 9 Obutale obw’omutindo gwa GW mazima ddala bujja kukola ebitundu 79.4% ku busobozi bwonna obuteekeddwa mu Bulaaya.

Obwetaavu bw’amasannyalaze agatali ga bulabe mu Bulaaya bweyongera nnyo, era okuyingiza ebintu mu ggwanga mu 2021 mazima ddala kujja kweyongera nnyo. Okusinziira ku bungi bwa modulo eziyingizibwa mu ggwanga n’okufulumizibwa ebweru mu 2021, obungi bwa modulo obuyingizibwa mu mawanga ga Bulaaya nga Budaaki gweyongedde nnyo bw’ogeraageranya ne mu 2015. Mu 2021, ebitundu ebifulumizibwa ebweru mazima ddala bijja kuba 100.6 GW, nga ku bino Budaaki y’ensi esinga okutunda modulo. Module imports mu 2021 egenda kuba around 25GW, nga eyongedde ebitundu 93% okuva mu 2020.

Kisaana okumanya nti omuwendo gwa bulijjo ogw’ebitundu by’Abachina ebifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga mu 2021 mazima ddala gujja kulinnya ebitundu 10.6% bw’ogeraageranya ne 2020, naye tekijja kukosa bungi bwa elementi ebweru w’eggwanga. Okuva mu December 2021, obungi bw’ebisale by’ebitundu ebifulumizibwa ebweru w’eggwanga mazima ddala bujja kulinnya ebitundu 14% omwezi ku mwezi nga kw’otadde n’ebitundu 45% omwaka ku mwaka.

Mu mwaka gwa 2022, obusobozi obujjuvu obuteekeddwa mu Bulaaya bujja kutuuka ku 37.3 GW. Mu kiseera kye kimu, nga EU eteesa ku nkola nnyingi ez’enkola okwanguya okutegeera ekiruubirirwa ky’obusobozi bw’okuteekawo amasannyalaze g’enjuba aga 1000GW mu 2030, akatale k’eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo mu Bulaaya kasuubirwa okwongera enkulaakulana ey’enjawulo. Kinajjukirwa nti wansi w’okukulaakulana kw’obwetaavu obw’amaanyi mu Bulaaya, Bulaaya esuubirwa okwongera okukkiriza omuwendo gwa modulo z’enjuba, awamu n’olw’okubeerawo kw’akatale kaayo ak’okutambuza amasannyalaze mu Bulaaya, kiyinza okulowoozebwa nti obungi bw’ebintu ebiyingizibwa mu ggwanga ebya modulo ezikola amasannyalaze g’ekitangaala mu Bulaaya mazima ddala gujja kusigala nga gwe muwendo ogw’awamu mu 2022. Ebisale byeyongera.

Wadde ng’omuwendo gw’eby’obugagga ebizzibwawo mu Bulaaya oguyingira mu kiseera kino mutono nnyo, gulina ekitundu kinene nnyo eky’okukulaakulanya mu kiseera eky’oluvannyuma era era kye kitundu ekikulu eky’okwongera ku masannyalaze mu biseera eby’omu maaso.