Okutereka amaanyi okuwangaala kye ki? Kiba kya bbeeyi ki?

Ekifo ekitereka amaanyi ekiwangaala kitera okunnyonnyola tekinologiya w’okutereka amaanyi agasukka mu ssaawa 4. Enkola y’okutereka amasannyalaze ewangaala nkola ya kifo we batereka amaanyi esobola okutegeera okucaajinga era n’okufulumya enzirukanya okuyita mu nnaku, emyezi, era n’ebiseera okutuukiriza obukuumi obuwangaala obw’enkola y’amasannyalaze. Bbeeyi y’okuyingira mu kukola amasannyalaze ag’ebikozesebwa ebizzibwawo gyekoma okuba omunene, obudde bw’ekifo ekyetaagisa okutereka amasannyalaze gye bukoma okubeera obuwanvu.

Okukola amasannyalaze agazzibwawo kulina engeri z’okuddamu, obudde obukulu obw’okukola amasannyalaze awamu n’obudde bw’okuyingiza amasannyalaze ag’oku ntikko tebukwatagana bulungi, era era waliwo ekituli wakati w’okugabibwa n’obwetaavu. Nga okuyingira kweyongera, ttani zeetaaga okutebenkeza enkola y’amasannyalaze yeeyongera. Bw’ogeraageranya n’ekifo ekitereka amasannyalaze eky’ekiseera ekitono, enkola y’ekifo ekitereka amaanyi ekiwangaala esobola okutegeera obulungi okuvvuunula amasannyalaze, okutambuza amaanyi g’enkola y’okukola eby’obugagga ebizzibwa obuggya okutuuka mu kiseera eky’oku ntikko eky’obwetaavu bw’amasannyalaze, awamu n’okuzannya omulimu gw’okutebenkeza enkola y’amasannyalaze nga kw’otadde n’okukuuma amaanyi ku mutendera omunene.

Ebintu ebikwata ku ntikko-okusenya n’okujjuza ebiwonvu ebya pulojekiti y’ebikozesebwa mu kutereka amasannyalaze, awamu n’okukola ebyuma ebiwangaala mu kifo ekitereka amasannyalaze ebikiikirirwa 4h kyetaagisa. Okusinziira ku biwandiiko bya CAISO, kubisa curve y’okucaajinga era n’okufulumya curve y’ebyuma ebitereka amaanyi ga bbaatule mu lunaku lumu mu kiseera ky’obutiti mu California mu 2021.

Ekyuma ekitereka amaanyi kisuubula amasannyalaze ku maanyi amangi olunaku lwonna, wamu n’okufulumya ku maanyi amangi mu kiseera ky’amaanyi agasinga okukozesebwa ekiro, awamu n’okufulumya amasannyalaze mu buwanvu okumala essaawa ezisukka mu 4.

Okusinziira ku biwandiiko bya Strategen eby’okunoonyereza, omwaka 2045 we gunaatuukira, amasannyalaze g’enjuba gajja kufuuka eky’obugagga ekisinga obukulu mu California, nga gakola ebitundu 75%. Okusobola okutebenkeza amaanyi g’enjuba, amasannyalaze geetaaga okukuumibwa okumala essaawa 8 ku 12 olunaku lwonna, era n’obungi bw’okutereka nga kw’otadde n’okusindika akawungeezi mazima ddala nagwo bujja kwongera. Okusinga, kyetaagisa okufulumizibwa obutasalako okumala essaawa 12. Okukula kw’ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi ekiwangaala kyetaagisa nnyo.

Olw’ekitundu ekinene eky’amasannyalaze agazzibwawo mu USA, The golden state is among the golden areas okufulumya enkola nnyingi ez’okutereka amaanyi nga zirina obudde bw’okufulumya obutasalako obwa 4 hrs.

Okuva mu 2019, ekitundu kya California mu butuufu kitandise okuteeka mu nkola enkola z’okutereka amasannyalaze mu bifo eby’essaawa 4. Okusinziira ku kuteebereza kwa Strategen, The golden state egenda kufulumya ebyuma ebitereka amaanyi ebiwangaala 2-11GW mu mwaka gwa 2030, ate 45-55GW ez’ensengeka z’ebifo eby’okutereka amaanyi ag’ekiseera ekiwanvu zijja kutegeerekeka mu mwaka gwa 2045

Emitendera esatu egy’okutereka amaanyi okumala ebbanga eddene

Ku kifo ekitereka amaanyi ekiwangaala, ensonga esinga obukulu kwe kuwa obuyambi ku nnongoosereza ey’enjawulo ey’enkola y’amasannyalaze. Mu bukulu, mu nkola y’amasannyalaze, oludda lw’obwetaavu bw’eby’obugagga ebikyukakyuka okusinga luli mu masannyalaze g’empewo era n’ebifo ebikola amasannyalaze ag’ekitangaala; obusobozi bw’enkola y’amasannyalaze okutwalira awamu buva mu nsonga 2, emu ye nkola y’amasannyalaze ekyukakyuka (flexible power generation) eya seti ya jenereta eyasooka, ate endala ez’enjawulo y’enkola y’okutereka. ensengeka y’ebifo eby’amasoboza.

Bwe twekenneenya sipiidi y’obuyiiya, twanguyiza kkampuni ezisobola okukyusa embeera mu bitundu 3: enkola za sitoowa; enkola z’ekifo eky’okutereka amasannyalaze ebikuze - okutereka amasannyalaze mu ppampu; obuyiiya obupya ennyo mu kutereka amasannyalaze. Mu ngeri eno, kisoboka okulaga mu bufunze enkulaakulana y’okutereka amasannyalaze ng’ekitundu ky’empewo era n’okukola amaanyi g’enjuba kigenda kyeyongera.

Okusingira ddala, kiyinza okwawulwamu ddala mu mitendera esatu:

Omutendera 1: Ebitundu nga 10% eby’amasannyalaze g’empewo (ebikiikirira omutendera China mazima ddala gw’egenda okusigala mu nga 2021):.

Ekiseera ky’eddirisa ery’obukodyo okutumbula tekinologiya ow’omulembe omupya ennyo ow’okutereka amaanyi agawangaala kiri ku mutendera guno, yuniti ezifulumya eziriwo (amaanyi g’amanda, amaanyi ga ggaasi) zisobola okukyusibwa okusobola okuwa obuyambi bw’ensibuko obusingako awo; enkola eya bulijjo ey’ekifo we batereka amaanyi okutereka okupampagira olw’ekiseera ky’okuzimba n’okuzimba Ekiwanvu (emyaka 6-8), kyetaaga okugendererwa n’okutongozebwa mu bwangu; ensaasaanya y’emirimu emipya ennyo egy’ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi ekyali ya bbeeyi nnyo, wabula singa wakyaliwo ekituli mu kukyukakyuka, emirimu emipya egy’ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi gyetaaga okujjibwamu amangu ddala nga bwe kisoboka.

Omutendera 2: Omutendera nga 20% ku kukola amasannyalaze g’empewo (ekikwatagana n’omutendera China mazima ddala gw’egenda okuba mu nga 2025):.

Ku mutendera guno, olutalo olusalawo olw’okukola tekinologiya omupya ow’okutereka amaanyi agawangaala mu ngeri ey’obwengula okukendeeza ku nsaasaanya lugenda mu mutendera guno. Okukyusakyusa yuniti ezifulumya eziriwo okusinga kuwedde nga kwotadde n’okutasobola kuwa mitendera ku mitendera mingi egy’okukola ebintu; Amaanyi agasookerwako; mu kiseera kino, obwetaavu bw’okutereka amasannyalaze amapya ddala bweyongedde.

Omutendera 3: Ku bikwata ku bitundu 30% eby’amasannyalaze g’empewo (ekikiikirira omutendera gwa China nga 2030, ogukiikirira omutendera gwa The golden state mu 2020):.

Tekinologiya w’ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi ag’olubeerera alongooseddwa ssente ali mu kiseera ky’okukulaakulana okw’amangu mu busobozi bw’okuteekawo. Ku mutendera guno, ebyuma ebiriwo tebirina kifo kya kulongoosebwamu nga kw’otadde n’okuggyibwawo mpola; okutereka mu ppampu kuliko ekkomo olw’ensonda z’ebitundu era era tesobola kugenda mu maaso na kwongera; just count on brand-new lasting energy storage technologies Okuwa ensonda ezisobola okukyusakyusa mu ngeri ey’okweyongera.

Ekika ky’ekifo ekitereka amaanyi ekiwangaala.

Engeri n’okukendeera kw’ensaasaanya ya tekinologiya ow’okutereka amaanyi bya njawulo. Okusinziira ku mbeera ez’enjawulo ez’okukozesa, tekinologiya ow’okutereka amasannyalaze ag’ekiseera ekiwanvu ajja kuwa enkola ya layini eziwera.

Mu bufunze, obuyiiya mu kifo ekitereka amaanyi ag’ekiseera ekiwanvu busobola okwawulwamu layini ssatu enkulu: okutereka amaanyi ag’ebyuma, okutereka amaanyi ag’ebbugumu, n’ekifo ekitereka amaanyi g’eddagala. Mu byo, okutereka amaanyi mu byuma kulimu okutereka amazzi aga pampu n’okutereka amaanyi g’empewo enyigirizibwa; okutereka mu bbugumu okusinga kifo kya kutereka ebbugumu ly’omunnyo ogusaanuuse; okutereka amaanyi g’eddagala kirimu ekifo we batereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya lithium-ion, okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya sodium-ion wamu n’okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ezitambula amazzi.

Ensaasaanya y’ensimbi ezisookerwako, obulungi bw’okutereka amasannyalaze era n’obulamu bw’enzirukanya bye bintu ebisatu ebikulu.

1. Ekifo ekisinga obuseerezi eky’okutereka amasannyalaze okumala ebbanga eddene: ekifo eky’okuterekamu amazzi agapambiddwa, empewo enyigirizibwa, okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya lithium-ion.

Okulowooza ku nsaasaanya y’okucaajinga, ekifo ekiterekebwamu amazzi mu pampu era n’obuyiiya bw’okutereka amaanyi g’empewo enyigirizibwa kye kimu ku bisinga okukekkereza ssente, ate ekifo ekitereka amaanyi ga bbaatule za lithium-ion kye kifo eky’okutereka amaanyi g’amasannyalaze eky’amasannyalaze tekinologiya ow’omulembe ng’ekisinga okubeera eky’ebbeeyi buli kilowatt-hour ku mutendera oguliwo kati, era bbaatule za sodium-ion ne bbaatule ezitambula zikendeezezza ku nsaasaanya buli kilowatt-hour.

2. Empewo enyigirizibwa: Empewo bw’eyongerwako okutuuka ku bitundu 65%, embeera y’ebyenfuna esuubirwa okusukka ey’okutereka ebyuma ebipambiddwa.

Olw’okutumbula omutindo gw’okutereka amasannyalaze, ensaasaanya ya buli yuniti y’amasannyalaze ey’obuyiiya bw’okutereka amaanyi g’empewo enyigirizibwa mazima ddala ejja kusigala ng’ekendedde, era esuubirwa okusukka okutereka amazzi aga pampu nga kw’otadde n’okumaliriza nga bwe buyiiya obusinga okukekkereza ssente mu kutereka amasannyalaze mu bunene. Okwekenenya obuwulize kulaga nti omuwendo gw’okuteeka ssente ogusooka bwe guba 1.4 yuan/Wh, nga tuteebereza nti obusobozi bw’okutereka amaanyi mu kifo ekirungi bulinnyisibwa okutuuka ku 70%/ 75%/ 80%, omuwendo buli omu ogw’amasannyalaze ng’olowooza ku bbeeyi y’okusasula guyinza okukka okutuuka ku 0.834/ 0.806/ 0.782 yuan/kWh.

Mu kiseera kino, obulungi bw’ensengeka y’enkola ya Zhangjiakou ey’okutereka amaanyi g’empewo enyigirizibwa ey’omulembe eya 100MW/400MWh butuuse ku bitundu 70.4%, era era n’enkola yaayo mazima ddala ejja kwetegereza obutasalako mu biseera eby’omu maaso.

3. Battery ya Lithium-ion: Oluvannyuma lw’omutindo gwa lithium okugwa, ekyali ddagala eritereka amaanyi eriwangaala nga lya bbeeyi nnyo. Olw’embiro z’amakolero era n’ensaasaanya y’eby’obugagga mu biseera by’omusana, omuwendo gw’ensimbi ogusooka ogw’okuteeka ssente mu kutereka amaanyi ga lithium-ion gusuubirwa okukendeera mpolampola, ekijja okutumbula embeera yaayo ey’ebyenfuna mu kifo ky’okutereka amaanyi. Okwekenenya obuwulize (sensitivity analysis) kukolebwa. Bwe kiba nti obulungi bw’okutereka amasannyalaze buba 88%, nga tufudde nti omuwendo ogusooka ogw’okuteeka ssente mu nkola y’okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya lithium-ion eya 10MW/50MWh gukendeezeddwa okutuuka ku 1.5/ 1.2/ 1.0 (yuan/Wh), ensaasaanya ya buli yuniti y’amasannyalaze ng’otunuulidde omuwendo gw’okusasula eba 1.081/ 0.966/ 0.890 yuan/kWh.

4. Battery y’amazzi agakulukuta: omuwendo gw’ensimbi ezisookerwako ate era n’okukozesa obulungi ekifo ky’okutereka amaanyi bye bizibu 2 ebikulu. Olw’embiro y’enkola ya otomatiki, ssente ezisookerwako ez’okuteeka ssente mu kifo ekitereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ezitambuza amazzi zisuubirwa okukendeera, era obulungi bw’ekifo kyayo eky’okutereka amaanyi bujja kulinnya mpolampola, ekijja mazima ddala okwongera okutumbula obulungi bwa bbaatule etambuza amazzi. Ensaasaanya ya KWH.

Okutuukiriza omutendera gw’okwekenneenya obuwulize, ng’obulungi bw’okutereka amasannyalaze buli 75%, nga tuteebereza nti omuwendo gw’ensimbi ezisookerwako ez’okuteeka ssente mu nkola y’okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule 10MW/50MWh ekka okutuuka ku 2.5/ 2.0/ 1.5 (yuan/Wh), ensaasaanya buli emu ey’amasannyalaze bw’olowooza ku kusasula omuwendo gw’amasannyalaze g’amasannyalaze ejja kukka Ye 1.293/ 1.132// 0.971 yuan/kWh.

5. Sodium-ion battery: Oluvannyuma lw’okukendeeza ennyo ku bbeeyi, esobola okukozesebwa ng’empeereza y’ekifo eky’okutereka amaanyi ey’ekiseera ekiwanvu ey’ebbeeyi ensaamusaamu. Nga enkola y’okukulaakulanya amakolero yeeyongera, omuwendo gw’ensimbi ogusookerwako ogw’okuteeka ssente mu kutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya sodium-ion gusuubirwa okukendeera, okulongoosa ennyo embeera yaayo ey’ebyenfuna mu kifo ky’okutereka amasannyalaze.

Kola okwekenneenya okukwatagana, ng’obulungi bw’okutereka amasannyalaze buli 80%, ng’okitwala nti omuwendo ogusooka ogw’okuteeka ssente mu nkola y’okutereka amaanyi ga bbaatule ya 10MW/50MWh gukendeezeddwa okutuuka ku 1.6/ 1.3/ 1.0 (yuan/Wh), bbeeyi ya buli yuniti y’amasannyalaze ng’otunuulidde omuwendo gw’okusasula guli 1.263/ 1.153/ 1.044. Yuan/kWh. Ensaasaanya y’ensimbi mu kusooka bw’eneekka okutuuka ku 1.3 (yuan/Wh), bbeeyi ya buli emu ey’amasannyalaze ejja kuba ntono okusinga bbaatule ya lithium-ion eriwo.