Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-11-24 Origin: Site
There have been two reversals in China's power battery market.
The technological course conflict in between lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery has actually been taking place for many years.
In 2021, lithium iron phosphate will reverse ternary lithium for the very first time in China's power battery market, ending up being the battery type with the largest installed ability; this year, the void in between lithium iron phosphate batteries and also ternary lithium batteries will further expand. But from a worldwide point of view, ternary lithium still securely controls the outright bulk of the power battery market.
Who will regulate the ups and downs of lithium iron phosphate and also ternary lithium in the future? Yang Hongxin, chairman and CEO of Honeycomb Power Innovation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Honeycomb Power") lately told a press reporter from China Company News that the "big cobalt-free system" including lithium iron phosphate as well as lithium manganese oxide will be made use of in the whole power market in the future. The battery market share is expected to go beyond 70%, of which lithium iron phosphate accounts for more than 60%, or perhaps higher.
" China and also the entire globe will certainly have this ratio." Yang Hongxin stated that the technology in lithium iron phosphate modern technology as well as framework in the past few years has greatly tightened the void with the energy density of ternary lithium batteries, and also the cost benefit is highlighted when the cost of upstream materials skyrockets. At present, lithium iron phosphate batteries have actually covered the mainstream market with a battery life of 500-700 kilometers, and also are replacing ternary lithium batteries in the commercial power storage space market. The future of ternary lithium batteries is focused in the greater density as well as incredibly fast billing market, along with the field of solid-state batteries that have not yet been commercialized.
In just a couple of years, China's power battery market has actually experienced two turnarounds.
In the early stage of the advancement of new energy lorries, as a result of the advantages of cost, safety, and cycle life, lithium iron phosphate swiftly ended up being the first choice for cathodes, as well as its market share is far ahead. In 2016, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69% of the residential power battery market. Nevertheless, throughout the very same period, the efficient battery life of passenger cars utilizing lithium iron phosphate batteries is generally around 200-300 kilometers. With the gradual progression of technology, it will just be around 400 kilometers by 2020. The restriction of gas mileage makes the promo of new power cars very slow-moving.
In 2017, the appropriate nationwide ministries as well as compensations changed the aid plan for new power vehicles, as well as for the first time included battery power thickness as an aid recommendation index, "The mass energy density of the power battery system of pure electric guest The aid will be provided at 1.1 times." This has actually brought about a rapid increase in the mounted capability of ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density, as well as the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has diminished greatly.
According to the information of the Power Battery Alliance, in 2018, the advancing output of residential power batteries reached 70.6 GWh, of which ternary batteries represented 55.5%, as well as lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39.7%. In 2019, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries better dropped to 33%, and also the proportion of ternary lithium batteries reached 58%. In the first quarter of 2020, the market share of ternary lithium batteries has actually enhanced to 76%, and also the trend of one company dominating is extra obvious. Some research study organizations suggested at the time that ternary materials would certainly control the cathode market.
In March 2020, BYD released a "smash hit" that surprised the field of new power cars - the blade battery. Compared with traditional batteries, the blade battery properly raises the area usage rate. A lot more batteries can be loaded in the very same area. The volume usage price is raised by more than 50%, and the cruising range is boosted by greater than 50%, reaching a level near The same level of high power thickness ternary lithium battery.
" For cars utilizing lithium iron phosphate batteries in the very early years, the travelling range of 400 kilometers is not bad. With architectural development, BYD has made the cruising variety of lithium iron phosphate batteries get to 500 kilometers. With the upgrade of the electrochemical system, it can get to 600 kilometers. kilometres, covering one of the most popular market of regarding 500 kilometers." Yang Hongxin claimed that with the spheroidization innovation of lithium iron phosphate, the addition of new electrolytes, and also the renovation of unfavorable electrode products, the constraints of bad low-temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate have essentially been addressed.
Additionally, with the renovation of gram capacity as well as compaction area, and also the optimization of particle structure, lithium iron phosphate can achieve a power of 195 watts per kg, which can sustain a battery life of 800 kilometers, covering the battery life of B-class and C-class cars and trucks require. At the beginning of this year, lithium manganese iron phosphate, which was born by mixing lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganese phosphate, has an energy density of 210 Wh/kg, which is even more lowered by 10% to 15% in volume and also weight compared with lithium iron phosphate
In July 2021, the installed ability of lithium iron phosphate batteries turned around that of ternary lithium batteries for the very first time. Since then, the space has actually progressively expanded, and ultimately lithium iron phosphate batteries won with a market share of 52% in 2021.
On the other hand, with the surge in sales of new power lorries, the major supply discrepancy has caused a sharp increase in the cost of upstream raw materials, and ternary lithium batteries are under greater pressure from climbing product expenses. Taking cobalt as an example, cobalt accounts for an important part of the favorable electrode product price of ternary lithium batteries. Taking the ternary 523 battery system as an instance, cobalt make up 20% of the material cost, as well as its price variations will straight affect the expense of batteries. In addition, 66% of the globe's cobalt production originates from the politically unstable Autonomous Republic of the Congo. China's cobalt reserves only account for about 1% of the global gets. The deficiency of cobalt sources seriously threatens the security of the power battery supply chain.
In October 2021, Tesla announced that, subject to the high rate of cobalt, the common battery life Design 3 and also Version Y worldwide will certainly all change to cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries.
" Tesla's use of lithium iron phosphate is a very demonstrative occasion." Yang Hongxin said that before 2021, major international cars and truck producers mainly accept Japanese as well as Korean battery manufacturing facilities. They have actually always utilized ternary lithium batteries and do not know much regarding iron phosphate. lithium battery. At the end of 2021, European as well as American car manufacturers will re-acquaint themselves with lithium iron phosphate, and also start to contact Chinese companies to examine and establish lithium iron phosphate items.
From the perspective of the market, the sales of EVs and also PHEVs have actually risen because in 2015. Only the Chinese market will certainly double to 3.1 million systems in 2021, as well as it is estimated that sales of 6 million systems will certainly be achieved in 2022. At the same time, China Advancement Aeronautics, Yiwei Lithium Power, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and also Honeycomb Energy are all intensely introducing lithium iron phosphate as well as other battery production ability jobs.
Tesla's demonstration result, the break out of the marketplace, and the improvement of supply have resulted in a sudden rise in the quantity of lithium iron phosphate. Nevertheless, in addition to auto power batteries, there is a "trillion" degree of brand-new blue ocean that is biding to lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Trillion Power Storage Space Blue Ocean Market
Considering that wind power, photovoltaic power generation and various other new energy power generation approaches normally have intermittent and volatility troubles, as well as property and also commercial electricity intake also has volatility qualities, just how to make sure and balance the stability of both sides of power supply and need has become an issue that should be overcome currently as well as in the future. problems, and energy storage is the key to resolving these problems.
The concepts of energy storage as well as charging treasure are generally similar, billing at the bottom and also discharging at the peak, storing unpredictable power such as wind power or photovoltaics, and then changing as well as stabilizing the result. Amongst the many energy storage space modern technology routes, with the development of battery modern technology and also the decrease of costs, electrochemical energy storage is taken into consideration to have one of the most growth possibility and is the following blue ocean market that is about to blow up.
Pertinent statistics show that in 2021, the nationwide and local governments have actually together provided more than 300 energy storage-related policies, and the commercial chain financial investment strategy has actually exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of this year, an overall of 25 districts have included the growth of energy storage in the federal government work report.
Haitong Securities pointed out in the research report that the installed capability of brand-new power storage in China will reach greater than 30GWh in 2025. Since 2021, the advancing installed capacity of brand-new energy storage will just be about 5.7 GWh, which indicates that the installed ability of new power storage space will go to the very least 5 ~ 6GWh. area for dual growth. Everbright Stocks thinks that the range of China's energy storage space market will certainly get to 0.45 trillion yuan by 2025, and also will certainly expand to regarding 1.3 trillion yuan by 2030.
Ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density have taken the lead in the energy storage space market. Nevertheless, considering that 2017, there have been constant fire and also explosion accidents in power storage space power stations. Amongst them, 24 fire or surge accidents took place in South Korea, which uses ternary lithium batteries. This has caused the qualified authorities to stress over the security of ternary lithium batteries as power storage power stations.
On June 29 this year, the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Management provided a letter on soliciting point of views on the "Twenty-five Trick Demands for Stopping Power Production Accidents (2022 Version) (Draft for Remark)", which included the avoidance of fires in electrochemical power storage space power plant. The requirements of the mishap pointed out that medium and large electrochemical energy storage space power plant need to not utilize ternary lithium batteries and sodium-sulfur batteries, and waterfall utilization power batteries must not be made use of.
In this context, lithium iron phosphate batteries, which have extra benefits in safety, cost and also life, have begun to boldy enter the energy storage market. Consisting of the substitute of the developed ternary lithium battery task.
The need for house energy storage of smaller devices is likewise rising, amongst which portable power products and also power-generating a/c, refrigerators and also various other electrical devices that consume a great deal of power or are on-line for a long time are the major ones.
After the Russia-Ukraine problem as well as extreme weather condition, Europe's power dilemma has remained to worsen. Standard gas costs in Europe have skyrocketed 550% in the past year, and also electrical power rates have actually climbed virtually significantly in a year. The situation in France and also Germany is especially severe. Among them, the base lots power price supplied in France following year will reach 1,130 euros/MWh, appearing the 1,000 euro mark for the very first time in background, a boost of more than 1,000% compared with the very same duration in 2014. The price of similar products in Germany got to 995 Euros/MWh.
Under the dual stimulation of the energy situation under the geopolitical dispute as well as the solid support of government policies, the demand for home power storage items in the European market has boosted dramatically. According to data from the British Solar Energy Industry Association (Solar Energy UK), greater than 3,000 solar panels have actually been installed on the roofs of British homes each week in recent months, which has tripled compared to the summer season two years earlier; The reduced solar storage space price enables customers to recoup the investment cost within 3 to 5 years
Locally, the trend of house devices that can produce electrical power is likewise on the rise. Take the power-generating air conditioning system revealed by Gree Electric as an example. An energy storage battery is prepared inside the ac system, which can be charged when the electricity rate is cheap, and used to drive the ac unit when the electrical energy cost is high. stress. In this field, lithium iron phosphate also has even more cost and also security benefits than ternary
"There are a lot of application situations for lithium iron phosphate, which is why the quantity of lithium iron phosphate has all of a sudden enhanced currently, as well as will certainly remain to enhance in the future." Yang Hongxin stated.
Taking into consideration aspects such as market need, lithium mine supply and mining cycle, and also lithium battery suppliers' growth cycle, Yang Hongxin thinks that by the second half of next year, the supply and demand relationship between nickel and lithium will certainly alleviate. With the release of battery manufacturing facility expansion capacity, power battery rates will raise. There is a particular alternative. However, by 2026, the appointing of power batteries and also energy storage plants in Europe as well as the USA will additionally push up need, so battery sources will stay in a tight balance over time.
"The 100-year-old car sector was initially extremely secure, however there are many variables in the electrical automobile industry. The Fukushima quake, the suspension of mine production in Australia, as well as the failure to supply items at South African ports may all bring about the suspension of production of car factories around the globe. My deepest sensation is that despite the car supplier, Battery companies have to grasp resources as well as not let sources become a traffic jam. But in the past 2 years, they have to withstand solitude and experience tough times." Yang Hongxin stated.